Premier League Preview – 30 August 2013
This entry was posted on Friday, August 30th, 2013
It’s been a predictable opening to the Premier League season. We’ve had Mourinho turning big games into bore draws, Arsenal already overseeing a crisis and Ian Holloway has had a disciplinary charge. At least this weekend we’ve got the first major derby of the season in North London after old rivals Liverpool and Manchester United meet at Anfield. It’s one of them Super Sundays the boys at BT Sport could only dream of.
Saturday first however and our initial selection is to back West Ham to continue their fine start to the season. Incredibly The Hammers haven’t even conceded a shot on target yet and we’re not sure Stoke will have enough to trouble them. Stoke secured maximum points just twice on the road last year, losing half their games, whilst the East London side managed an identical home record to Liverpool in 2012/13, taking 1.74 points per game. Evens with Ladbrokes, seems about right on the home win.
Sunderland travel to Crystal Palace for the late kick off on Saturday and it’s clear that Sunderland have got better later into games so far this campaign – clearly Di Canio’s fitness regime is having an effect. By contrast Palace have started brightly but faded – exemplified by last Saturday’s performance at Stoke. We think there’s every chance Palace will have the lead at the break (11/5 with Bet365) but we’re going to take a chance with a punt on Palace to lead at the break but to draw at Full-Time, which is a 14/1 shot at Ladbrokes.
Sunday’s game between Liverpool and Manchester United could potentially see the fifth consecutive 2-1 scoreline between the two sides – three of which have gone in United’s favour. However, Liverpool’s home League record against their big rivals is actually extremely good in recent years – last season was the only Anfield defeat since December 2007. At the prices we can’t back Liverpool given United are 13 unbeaten away in the League and the value looks to be backing the Half-Time draw at 5/4 with Bet365.
Arsenal, with three wins in a week welcome arch rivals Spurs but they do look a touch short at 11/10 to win the game. Whilst goals is the obvious prediction for this fixture given the last seven meetings have averaged over five goals per game, there’s something about this Spurs side that seems more solid, but at just 2.16 for Under 2.5 goals it’s not the value we hoped for. It’s a tough game to call, so we’ll suggest a small stakes punt – Tomas Rosicky to get a goal. He scored in the North London derby two years ago but more importantly showed against Villa on the opening day he’ll get the opportunities this season and he seems certain to start on Sunday. He’s 5/1 with Ladbrokes, but you should get a better price on Betfair.