Politics Betting – Brexit U-Turn

This entry was posted on Saturday, March 3rd, 2018

Suits Stained with Semtex

So we have finally learned that despite being a man of principle, there is one thing Corbyn will sell out for – electoral success. On issues such as loving bin Laden, not loving nuclear defence and being so close to the IRA, his suits from the era are stained with semtex, Corbyn clearly calculated (or his team did more likely), that the resultant electoral success of a U-turn on these issues, would not be worth the chagrin that abandoning lifelong principles would have entailed.

Yet with this weekend’s dramatic decision to press for a customs union after Brexit, the calculation must have been different. Despite the government being in a sorry state, Labour have still not managed to press home a significant advantage in the polls. And the so-called 48%, led by the likes of Andrew Adonis and Tony Blair, have yet to find a political home following the collapse of the pro-EU parties, the SNP and the Lib Dems. It’s a bold move, but how has it affected the betting.

If there is now a commons majority for the customs union, it would deal a fatal blow for Theresa May’s government, and increase the chances of a General Election in the spring. The Betfair exchange still offers a juicy 7.6 on May being deposed between April – June. A General Election this year is 5.2, equally alluring. And if you believe all this will be a fatal blow for Brexit, take the 1.68 that we will still be in the EU past the March 2019 deadline.

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