England vs Poland

This entry was posted on Monday, October 14th, 2013

18,000 Polish fans have been given tickets for their match with England at Wembley on Tuesday night and whilst it’s highly likely a few thousand more will be dotted around the stadium, they’ll surely be there to see England confirm their place in Brazil. Oh, and to provide Adrian Chiles with jokes about Roy BUILDING on the victory against Montenegro.

Whilst many have spent the last few days remembering the 1973 battle at Wembley, which ended English hopes of making the 1974 World Cup, the two sides actually met recently in similar circumstances. In October 2005 they fought for top spot in Group 6 of Qualifying and the right to go to Germany – England prevailed 2-1. England haven’t lost to Poland since an away fixture in 1973 whilst the last six times the Poles have visited our shores they’ve lost on every occasion.

Given Poland have little to play for and England have everything, it’s no shock to see the Three Lions as short as 2/9 with some bookmakers, but we cannot possibly recommend backing England at that price. Perhaps the value can be found in backing England to not make the breakthrough until the second half. Ukraine led at the break when they came to Wembley earlier in the campaign whilst even against weaker opponents in Montenegro on Friday – it remained goalless at Half Time. Lay England to be winning after 45 minutes at 1.67 on Betfair. By the same theory Draw HT / England FT at 5.1 on Betfair looks good value.

If you take away England’s games with Moldova and San Marino, ‘Roy’s boys’ have actually only scored eight goals in their five other qualifying games – four coming on Friday night. Poland haven’t conceded more than two goals in any of their last 13 away games which makes us suspect we’re in for a tight affair on Tuesday. Under 2.5 goals has to be the value at 6/5 with Ladbrokes whilst under 3.5 looks worthy of a larger investment at 1/2 also with Ladbrokes. 2-0 England is our 6.4 selection at Betfair.

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