What Odds On A General Election in 2009?

This entry was posted on Monday, April 6th, 2009

What odds on a General Election in 2009? Well Ladbrokes go 4/1, with 2010 being favoured at 1/6. Perhaps not surprising David Cameron’s Conservative Party are 8/15 favourites. But could it all change in the next month or so?

The UK Prime Minister, Gordon Brown, has been under massive pressure at home for 12 months with the world economy crumbling around his feet, problems with bankrupt bankers, businesses going bust, house repossessions growing as the number of unemployed grows, and now even his own cabinet under daily fire from the British media over MP expenses excesses.

Last month the UK leader was taken to task and dressed down in the most spectacular and totally purely British way of pure oratory art in the European Parliament, by UK Conservative MEP, Daniel Hannan, who dubbed him ‘The devalued Prime Minister of a devalued Government’.

And after that yes 2010 looked a good bet. However, they say ‘a week is a long time in politics’ and in flies the new enigmatic President of the United States of America, Barack Obama and the First Lady, Gordon’s hosting of the G20 is reported a success and even a scheming French and German Presidential pair are placated. What with the seasonal weather spilling sunshine over the country too, perhaps Prime Minister Brown will just spring a snap election out of the blue, so to speak, in June. The bookies have that at an interesting 8/1, the shortest price until June 2010 at 7/1.

The reported ‘green shoots of recovery’ are for sure many months still away, but Spring always brings rebirth, warmth and hope and certainly a busier economy and whilst everyone hopes the property market and other indicators are levelling out Labour have an opportunity to go for broke.

They could gamble on the economy recovering in 2010 and catching its coat tails to milk the assumed applause, but really they could be left high and dry with an electorate blaming them for the many high tax increases needed to pay off the massive borrowing and debt Gordon and his Chancellor heaped on the country in their need to spend their way out of recession. The political gamble is a big one for both punter and Mr Brown, there will be winners and losers.

Interestingly an OHIO University study showed that political gambling provided more reliable results than surveys and polls so even though Labour are behind the Conservatives on every count, now might just be the moment to strike for Gordon Brown and risk it all, and why not it’s only politics. Whoever’s next has the mountain of economic recovery to climb after all.

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