What Odds A UK Hung Parliament in 2010?

This entry was posted on Sunday, February 28th, 2010

A year ago the Conservatives in the UK were a dead cert to oust Labour and David Cameron their leader become Prime Minister, but this weekend’s latest political polls predict a Hung Parliament.

The odds on a Hung Parliament were long, but now quickly narrowing, even though the Tories lead the polls, a lead that has come under constant attack from some sharp social media PR whipped up by Labour, especially its orchestrator Lord Mandelson.

It’s been 36 years since the last hung parliament in the UK. The most recent elected hung parliament in the United Kingdom was that which followed the February 1974 general election, which lasted until the October election that year. Prior to that the last had been following the election of 1929. Hung parliaments can also arise when slim government majorities are eroded by by-election defeats and defection of Members of Parliament to opposition parties. This happened in 1996 to the Conservative government of John Major (1990-97) and in 1978 to the Labour government of James Callaghan (later Lord Callaghan of Cardiff) (1976-79).

Nick Clegg, leader of the Liberal Democrats could yet be King Maker, but as they say a week is still a long time in Parliament and who knows what will yet transpire in the run up to an election that although has not been announced by Gordon Brown must happen by this June. As a gambling spectacle it sure will be an intriguing one, perhaps the best ever, political gambling is one to keep an eye on this Spring.

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4 Responses to What Odds A UK Hung Parliament in 2010?

  1. tony says:

    There is an interesting chart here: http://www.charter2010.co.uk/pollwatch which has had the polls pointing to a hung parliament for over a month now, although the line has started to swing slowly from a tory majority towards a labour majority.

    Even the betting odds at William Hill are down from 9/4 to 5/4!

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