3 Rules for Betting on the Champions League

This entry was posted on Wednesday, September 12th, 2012

1) Like the early rounds of the X-Factor, the Champions League has been much maligned in certain quarters for not being competitive enough until the latter stages, but last year showed us that you can’t take anything for granted.

Who fancied Cypriot minnows APOEL to top a group with Porto, Zenit St Petersberg and Shakhter Donestk? Who thought both Manchester sides would slump to the earliest of exits? It means there is value to be found if you can find the right favourite to lay in the ‘to win the group’ or the ‘to qualify’ markets. We’d fear that big spending PSG could repeat Man City’s efforts last year – 7/2 about them not qualifying from Group A looks too big.

2) The top scorer market has been more predictable in recent years than a Roy Hodgson England press conference. Lionel Messi has won it in the last four years and given Barcelona have proven to be certainties for the semi-final stage over the last five years, we can’t put you off any bets on him making it five in a row at 2/1.

3) Our final tip is to not underestimate the importance of winning your Group. In 2011/12 six of the eight sides that advanced to the quarter-finals had won their Groups. In 2010/11 it was seven of the eight. That should act as a general guide – if clubs prove they can win they are capable of winning their groups, they are more than able to give any team that comes second a serious fight in the round of 16.

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